During the run-up to the 2020 Presidential Election, election processes were changed to roll out “no excuse mail-in voting.” Some states even went as far as sending ballots to every voter on the voter registration roll. Most of these changes were made without the consent of the state legislatures, as mandated by the US Constitution in Article 1, Section 4, Clause 1.
As a result of this, the number of mail-in ballots cast, according to the US Elections Assistance Commission, went from 33 million mail-in ballots in 2016 to approximately 65.5 million in the 2020 Election, despite warnings from a 2005 bipartisan report from President Jimmy Carter and former US Secretary of State James Baker in 2005 that stated mail-in balloting was “one of the major sources of fraud.”
As mentioned in the Heartland Institute report, the narrative in the Mockingbird Media shifted from calling out the dangers of no-excuse mail-in ballots prior to 2020 to falling in line with the idea that mail-in balloting was perhaps “even more secure than in-person voting” (NY Times, May 2020) and “voting by mail is the surest path to a more inclusive, more accurate and more secure election.” (Times, August 2020)
Last December, the author of the report, the Heartland Institute, partnered with Rasmussen Reports to conduct a poll of 1,085 people who voted in the 2020 Presidential Election. The results were shocking. The Gateway Pundit covered this poll as well as some of the warnings issued in the build-up to the 2020 Election.
The Heartland Institute took the polling results a step further: they measured “the effect of mail-in ballot fraud in the Trump-Biden race for the White House” through their report, titled “Who Really Won the 2020 Election?”
Spoiler Alert: President Trump wins outright in 26 of the 29 scenarios. If you include a tie-breaker, Trump wins 27 out of 29.
Before reporting the results of the individual assessments of swing-state races based on varying levels of fraud, it is worth acknowledging the results of Heartland’s poll with Rasmussen that formed the basis of their assessments.
In a poll of 1085 voters in the 2020 Election, 30% responded they voted by mail. Of those:
- 21% of mail-in voters admitted that in 2020 they voted in a state where they are “no longer a permanent resident”
- 21% of mail-in voters admitted that they filled out a ballot for a friend or family member
- 17% of mail-in voters said they signed a ballot for a friend or family member “with or without his or her permission”
- 19% of mail-in voters said that a friend of family member filled out their ballot, in part or in full, on their behalf
The report’s analysts were able to determine that “28.2% of respondents who voted by mail admitted to committing at least one kid of voter fraud”:
After analyzing the raw survey data, we were also able to conclude that 28.2 percent of respondents
who voted by mail admitted to committing at least one kind of voter fraud. This means that more than
one-in-four ballots cast by mail in 2020 were likely cast fraudulently, and thus should not have been
Next, the Heartland analysts took the electoral results and applied varying levels of mail-in voter fraud to each of the “swing states”, for which the report defined as Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They then assessed each state individually based on the following assumptions of fraud levels:
- 28.2% fraud – President Trump wins AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, and WI. Trump wins Electoral College 311-227
- 27-14% fraud – same result as above. Trump wins Electoral College 311-227
- 13-6% fraud – President Trump wins AZ, GA, PA, and WI. Biden wins MI and NV. Trump wins Electoral College 289-249
- 5-4% fraud – President Trump wins AZ, GA, and WI. Biden wins MI, NV, and PA. Electoral College is a tie at 269-269. This would have triggered a US House vote with each state’s legislature getting exactly 1 vote for the Presidency. Since the Republicans control more state legislatures, President Trump likely would have won.
- 3% – President Trump wins AZ and GA. Biden wins MI, NV, PA and WI. Biden wins Electoral College 279-259
- 2-1% – President Trump doesn’t win any states. Biden wins Electoral College 306-232
The report also assessed what would happen if the fraud occurred at different rates. While the sample size was insignificant, the Rasmussen/Heartland poll did find that “Biden voters admitted to committing at least one form of fraud at a rate of 23.2%, and Trump voters self-admitted fraud rate was 35.7%.” Even with the adjustment, President Trump would have won Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This would have resulted in a 278-260 Electoral College win for President Trump.
Several “proactive” and “preventative” recommendations were also offered in the report. The “proactive” suggestions included updating and verifying registration rolls annually, requiring identification to vote in person, encouraging in-person voting, requiring a witness or notary signature on all mail-in ballots, and requiring a valid excuse to request a mail-in ballot.
The “preventative” measures suggested were outlawing ballot harvesting, forbidding unattended and unsecured drop boxes, requiring signature verification for mail-in voting, and perhaps the two most important: establishing state-level agencies to investigate claims of election law violations and passing laws that impose harsh penalties for those who commit voter fraud.
Heartland Institute suggested requiring a notary to validate all ballot signatures and went as far as recommending the notaries do it for free or offer a program that reimburses notaries for the service.
The report concludes that “even if the level of fraud shown by our survey (28.2 percent of all mail-in ballots) substantially overstates the true level of fraud that occurred, Trump would still have won in most of the likely scenarios, with only three exceptions.” The authors claim they have “no reason to believe that [their] survey overstated voter fraud by more than 25 percentage points”.