Crude Oil Tanker, IMO 9258002, via Vessel Finder
Commentary
The Trump Administration is planning to use several measures to curtail Russia and bring President Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. President Trump has issued a 50-day clock to bring the fighting to an end. The actions include sanctions, tariffs, and a new flow of defensive weapons to Ukraine. President Trump said, “We’re going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don’t have a deal within 50 days. It’s very simple,” President Trump announced with the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte standing next to him, “And they’ll be at 100%…We are very unhappy, I am, with Russia,” said the President.
The Autopen Administration put many sanctions in place (but not tariffs) on Russia, but the Biden actions did little to stem Russian warfare in Ukraine. There is a reason the Autopen sanctions were ineffective. The Biden Team was role play acting with the sanctions. There is a difference between sanctions and sanction enforcement. The reality is that the Biden team would set sanctions, and then do very little to enforce them. China and Russia in response to the Autopen, created a massive “Ghost Fleet” of 800 or so ships that were in poor condition and continually re-registered and re-flagged to get around the American sanctions. Russia and Iran exist because of the Chinese purchases of sanctioned gas and oil at below market prices with the transactions conducted in Chinese Yuan. Russia and Iran have little option but to spend their Yuan on Chinese consumer product.
A need for a greatly expanded Navy and Coast Guard to enforce sanctions
Why did the Autopen Administration do little to enforce the myriad of sanctions against Russian imports of technology, decline to unleash American energy, and wait until the last few days before Donald J. Trump swept into his second term to aggressively go after Russian gas and oil exports? Pro forma sanctions are impressive virtue signaling but using the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard to stop Russian and Chinese ships is just too much work.
Although the Biden Team created the largest Defense Budget in world history, nothing seemed to happen. The U.S. Navy and Air Force lost more ships and aircraft in the Autopen 2024 defense budget than were lost at Pearl Harbor. The budget went up; available numbers of ships, units, and aircraft went down. Autonomous warships and drones are great and necessary – but so are ships with crews. Ghost Fleet vessels are unlikely to stop for drones but would have no choice when a re-born U.S. Navy hits 400 to 500 ships and can sustain a sanction enforcement quarantine of Ghost Fleet tankers coming out of the Baltic and heading over the Arctic to China or a blockade of the narrow Straits of Malacca. The new Department of the Coast Guard, grown to a ship and vessel count not seen since World War II, would best be in the lead of a worldwide quarantine of the Ghost Fleet. This function is better handled with the Coast Guard white hull fleet backed up by the grey hulls of the U.S. Navy. The Trump team is already delivering on record recruiting and retention; the bigger Coast Guard and Navy is right around the corner.
Holding the Insurers and Flags of Convenience Accountable
Before a campaign of maritime intercept operations to stop, board, and seize Ghost Ships is implemented, the far more effective technique is to first conduct a blitz of the international insurance companies and ship registry firms registering these Ghost Fleet rust buckets. Even crappy ships of the Ghost Fleet need insurance and registry before they move. By first approaching the insurance and shipping registries, which does not appear to have happened, it is very possible that significant compliance can be had. It is baffling why the Biden Team never did this, this is low hanging fruit for the Trump Administration.
The business practice of “Flags of Convenience” contributes to the chaos and evading of sanctions. For 50 plus years, allowing the biggest economy in the world (the U.S.) to use flags of convenience has created a bizarre situation where the largest economy in the world has the smallest merchant fleet in the world (approximately 80 of the 10,000 larger merchant vessels in the world are American flag, the rest are foreign flag). This has been a dangerous surrender of American sovereignty. While holding the insurers and ship registries accountable for the 800 or so Ghost Fleet vessels, the American Maritime Renaissance can be moving into high gear.
Unleashing U.S. Energy and an American Maritime Renaissance
Most of the friction with Russia is really a showdown with China and their proxies of Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and South Africa (possibly Pakistan too depending on which way the wind is blowing. At the end of the first term of the Trump Administration, America was the dominant energy producer and could use energy to force China, Russia, and Iran to behave. The Autopen shut down the historic achievement of American energy dominance. By unleashing American energy and inverting the current dysfunctional model of Flags of Convenience which has robbed America of jobs in crewing, building, and repairing maritime vessels, America will not only dominate energy, but the primary means of transporting the energy around the world. The Ghost Fleet will wither away.
The Export Enforcement Coordination Center run by the U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement Agency describes the Ghost Fleet issue in this manner:, “No other countries have perfected this illicit strategy (ghost fleets) as well as Russia and Iran, which utilize their elusive fleets to bypass sanctions and continue their oil sales worldwide. Industry experts believe that between 530 and 800 ghost fleet tankers are currently in operation…Understanding the intricacies and risks associated with these ghost fleets is paramount for banking and insurance professionals.” It is time to end the role play acting and enforce sanctions.
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
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