Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) tumbled into negative territory on Friday, sparking fresh debate about overheated valuations and “bubble” risk.
Yet, bullish investors see the selloff as noise rather than a sea change: red-hot Blackwell demand, glowing forward guidance, and a series of bullish analyst upgrades suggest the stock could snap back sharply.
With $51.2 billion billion in Blackwell revenue and consensus price targets well above current levels, Friday’s dip may be just a pause.
Put simply, the latest pullback appears to be a case of shifting sentiment, not a sign of decaying fundamentals, and when new supply disclosure or earnings strength hit, history suggests NVDA’s rebound could be both swift and sharp.
Blackwell demand and the supply crunch: Why revenue strength matters
At the core of Nvidia’s bull case is the record-setting demand for its Blackwell architecture.
The company booked $51.2 billion billion in Blackwell-driven revenue last quarter, an unprecedented launch ramp, CEO Jensen Huang declared, “off the charts.”
Major enterprise and cloud customers are placing supersized cluster orders, often for more than 100,000 GPUs at a time, driving a near-term supply crunch.
Nvidia’s own data shows Q3 revenue surging to around $57 billion as customers scramble for access to the latest chips to power AI workloads.
This supply squeeze has a tangible impact: customers have reported extremely long lead times, with some hyperscalers stating that “backlogs stretch into late next year.”
Historically, Nvidia shares have tended to rebound quickly once production bottlenecks ease or supply update headlines land.
Crucially, gross margins remain robust in the mid-70% range, and management has projected margin tailwinds as Blackwell volumes climb further, a key reason why institutional investors keep buying dips.
Nvidia stock: Technical case for a bounce
Despite Friday’s jitters, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia stock.
The average analyst price target currently hovers between $248 and $258, implying 35–45% upside from recent lows, with several heavyweights like Baird hiking their targets to $275 just last week.
Most coverage is skewed to Buy, reflecting confidence in Nvidia’s structural dominance in AI silicon.
Guidance is another major catalyst. Management’s $43–$44 billion forecast for Q1 points to ongoing acceleration, just the kind of signal that can unwind bearish positioning and attract new momentum buyers.
Historically, similar sentiment-driven drops have reversed quickly: after comparable dips in 2024, NVDA rebounded between 8% and 15% within a week as headlines or supply updates changed the story.
As one Barclays analyst put it, “The Blackwell ramp, combined with robust margin outlook, keeps our high-conviction Buy rating in place.”
Still, megacap moves can be volatile as investors should brace for sharp swings even if fundamentals hold strong.
Key triggers to watch include: (1) Nvidia or major customer updates on supply and ramp cadence; (2) fresh analyst price-target boosts or ratings moves; (3) macro developments that ease rate or valuation anxiety.
If supply and guidance remain solid, Friday’s slip may prove a classic buying opportunity, not the start of a downward trend.
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