Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) pushed higher on Wednesday, finding fresh momentum as reports of a potential “robotics executive order” from the Trump administration fueled buying in automation sectors.
But beyond the headlines, a quieter, more technical signal is flashing in the options market: traders are aggressively buying calls, and the structure of these bets suggests some participants are positioning for a near-term breakout.
While the stock consolidates above its 200-day moving average, the options pits, often a leading indicator for sentiment, are painting a picture of “data-driven optimism.”
The signal: Bulls are chasing the upside
The most distinct signal from Wednesday’s session is the tilt in put/call volume. Scanners from Barchart indicate that total options volume has skewed heavily toward calls, with the put/call ratio dipping below historical norms.
In plain English: for every bearish bet placed on Tesla dropping, there are significantly more bullish bets wagering it will rise.
More tellingly, this volume isn’t just scattered speculation. Market data reveals “unusual call sweeps,” large, urgent block orders executed at the ask price, clustered in near-term expirations (December 5 and December 12 contracts).
When institutional or sophisticated traders sweep near-dated calls, they aren’t hedging a 10-year portfolio; they are betting on immediate price action.
Strike concentration: Activity is notably heavy at strikes just above the current trading price ($430–$440 range).
In options theory, these strikes can act as “magnets.” As market makers sell these calls to traders, they must buy the underlying stock to hedge their exposure (a dynamic known as “delta hedging”).
If the stock price starts to rise, they must buy more stock, potentially creating a self-reinforcing loop that pushes shares higher.
Tesla stock: Volatility and the “Gamma” trap
However, experienced traders know that options flow is a probability gauge, not a crystal ball. The bullish signal comes with a caveat: Implied volatility (IV).
Tesla’s IV remains elevated relative to the broader market, meaning options premiums are expensive.
High IV suggests the market expects turbulence, likely due to the upcoming delivery numbers and lingering uncertainty over EV tax credit expirations.
If Tesla stock trades flat or only rises marginally, the “time decay” (theta) on these expensive near-term calls will eat up their value rapidly.
A rising stock price doesn’t always equal profit for call buyers if the move isn’t explosive enough to offset the premium paid.
The current buying appears linked to macro hopes (regulatory easing for robotics/FSD) rather than confirmed fundamentals.
With Michael Burry and other prominent bears still vocal about valuation concerns, citing a 209x forward P/E, any disappointment in news flow could see these bullish call positions unwind quickly, putting downward pressure on the stock.
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