Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) moved nearly 2% higher on Thursday, outpacing a mixed broader market.
While the magnitude of the move might seem modest for a stock known for its volatility, the catalyst is drawing outsized attention.
The uptick comes on the heels of a high-profile meeting between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and US President Donald Trump, coupled with reports that restrictive new amendments on chip exports were dropped from key legislation.
For investors, these developments are being read as a “policy win” that could reduce one of the biggest overhangs on the stock: the risk of a total lockout from the Chinese market.
Policy relief rally? Inside the “win” investors are betting on
For months, the fear of tightening US export controls has been a primary drag on Nvidia’s sentiment.
The concern was that Washington would not only ban cutting-edge chips but also close the loopholes that allow Nvidia to sell modified, lower-performance units (like the H200) to Chinese customers.
Recent events suggest that risk is receding. First, Jensen Huang’s direct engagement with Trump this week signals that Nvidia is effectively “inside the room” as policy is being shaped.
Trump’s public praise of Huang as a “smart man” who “knows” the administration’s stance suggests a collaborative rather than adversarial relationship.
Second, and perhaps more tangibly, the administration officially rescinded a Biden-era “AI diffusion rule” that would have imposed complex tiered restrictions on chip exports to third-party countries.
The market interprets this combination, direct access to the White House and the rollback of broad, complex regulatory frameworks, as a signal that future controls may be more targeted and less disruptive than feared.
Speculation is now building that exports of the H200 or next-generation Blackwell chips to China might face a smoother approval process, or at least avoid a blanket ban.
Investors are betting that the administration’s focus is shifting toward “American leadership” in AI, which inherently requires Nvidia to remain a dominant, profitable global powerhouse.
Nvidia stock: What today’s pop really signals
While the 2% rise is a positive signal, it’s important to keep the move in perspective.
Part of today’s action is likely technical, a bounce from recent selling pressure and broader “risk-on” flows into tech.
However, the narrative driving the tape is clearly one of relief. Traders who had hedged against a worst-case regulatory scenario are unwinding those bets, fueling the intraday bid.
For short-term traders, the takeaway is that Nvidia remains highly sensitive to regulatory optics.
Any headline that suggests a softening of the US-China tech war is an immediate buy signal. Volatility in this name is often less about fundamentals and more about the geopolitical rulebook it has to play by.
For long-term holders, today serves as a reassurance of Nvidia’s strategic importance. The fact that the CEO is consulting directly with the President reinforces the company’s status as a “national champion.”
As long as Washington views Nvidia’s success as aligned with US national security, the risk of crippling, company-breaking regulations diminishes.
However, this is not a blank check.
Export controls remain a fluid and bipartisan tool of foreign policy. One dropped amendment doesn’t mean the trade war is over, and China’s exposure will likely remain capped.
Markets will now be watching for the next concrete decision, specifically, whether licenses for new chips like the H200 are actually granted, to see if this “policy win” is a durable shift or just a temporary reprieve.
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