Bitcoin climbed sharply on Tuesday, rising 4.79% to $94,284, even as strategists warned that the prospects for a sustained year-end crypto rally remain uncertain.
The rebound reflects growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, tempered by concerns that policymakers may signal a pause in further easing.
The gains extended across the broader crypto market. Ethereum surged 8.54% to $3,374, outperforming major tokens.
Solana and Dogecoin each advanced more than 6% to $143.91 and $0.15, respectively, while XRP rose 4.57% to $2.16. Heavy buy volume pushed the sector higher following weeks of volatility.
Macro data support rate-cut bets
Tuesday’s advance followed US economic data showing job openings holding steady at 7.7 million in October, surpassing expectations.
The JOLTS report also recorded 5.1 million hires and 5.1 million separations, reinforcing the view of a gradually cooling labour market.
Markets widely expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive reduction.
But both CME FedWatch and Polymarket data show rising odds that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will signal caution about additional cuts in early 2025.
Investors are increasingly positioning for a scenario in which the central bank slows the pace of easing to manage inflation risks.
Bitcoin struggles after sharp October drop
Despite Tuesday’s rally, Bitcoin remains under pressure after a steep decline from its October record near $126,000.
The cryptocurrency has slipped 2% year to date, leaving it on track for its weakest annual performance since the 2022 crypto winter, when it lost more than 64% of its value.
Its divergence from equities has also widened. While the S&P 500 has gained 16% this year, Bitcoin has failed to participate in broader risk-on rallies, reflecting persistent volatility throughout 2025.
The sector has endured multiple sharp swings. Following an initial surge driven by the election of President Donald Trump, crypto and equity markets plunged in April after his tariff announcements.
Bitcoin later rebounded to an all-time high in early October, only to collapse again days later when Trump announced further tariffs and threatened export controls on critical software.
The October sell-off triggered more than $19 billion in leveraged liquidations — the largest in crypto’s history.
Strategists turn cautious
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick, said in a Tuesday note titled “Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze” that “recent price action in bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, to say the least.”
He cited the sharp collapse in the share values of digital-asset treasury companies (DATs) as a key reason for revising his outlook.
Kendrick noted that one pillar of his earlier bullish forecast had been continued purchasing by these companies.
Their steep share-price declines — many now trading below the value of the Bitcoin they hold — mean they are increasingly constrained in their ability to raise capital for additional purchases.
“We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” he said.
With that shift, Kendrick wrote that the bull case now “rests solely with ETF buying.”
He slashed his year-end price targets accordingly, reducing his 2025 forecast to $100,000 from $200,000, and lowering projections for subsequent years through 2028.
His previously expected $500,000 target has been pushed out to 2030.
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