Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) strong fundamentals and loyal customer base have helped it remain in a strong uptrend over the past nine months (since early April).
Still, Raymond James’ senior analyst Melissa Fairbanks says many of these strengths are already reflected in AAPL – and it will be hard-pressed to push any higher in 2026.
At the time of writing, Apple stock is up more than 55% versus its April low.
Why Raymond James is dovish on Apple stock
Melissa Fairbanks sees the iPhone maker’s push into artificial intelligence as promising – but not immediately transformative.
We expect adoption of AI functionality at the edge to remain relatively limited in the near-term.
The Raymond James analyst agreed AI integration will eventually lift demand for Apple’s products, but said this expected boost will likely take time to materialise.
In 2026, it may not be able to deliver the kind of explosive growth investors crave, leaving AAPL shares’ performance constrained until adoption broadens.
Meanwhile, a 0.38% dividend yield may prove a bit too small to incentivise ownership during this period.
What else could weigh on AAPL shares in 2026
Another major challenge is the sheer scale of Apple’s massive existing customer base. With 2.4 billion active devices worldwide, incremental growth from upgrade cycles is harder to achieve.
In her research note, Fairbanks explained that the giant’s broad reach makes it difficult to generate meaningful new gains from technology refreshes.
Simply put, Apple’s success has created a paradox – its dominance limits its ability to pleasantly surprise investors with fresh growth.
While new features and services may encourage upgrades, the pace of adoption is slower when nearly everyone who wants an iPhone already owns one.
This saturation effect means Apple shares may struggle to find catalysts strong enough to drive it significantly higher in 2026.
Apple is an expensive stock to own
Perhaps the most pressing concern is valuation. At a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 34, ecosystem and services growth strengths are already priced into AAPL stock.
“Despite strong fundamentals and improving product cycles, we believe Apple’s current valuation appropriately reflects these strengths, limiting near-term upside,” Mellissa Fairbanks told clients.
She acknowledged Apple’s leadership in consumer hardware and services, but that also means only little room for the stock to push meaningfully higher in 2026.
All in all, unless the Nasdaq-listed multinational delivers unexpected breakthroughs, its share price is unlikely to print a new all-time high this year, she concluded.
How Wall Street recommends playing Apple Inc
Investors should also note that Raymond James isn’t the only Wall Street firm that’s calling for a muted performance in Apple stock this year.
According to the Wall Street Journal, while consensus rating on AAPL shares sits at “overweight” currently, the mean target of about $291 suggests potential upside of just 7% from here.
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