After spending the last few days in a downtrend, Bitcoin price recovered from oversold levels, supported by a significant return of institutional interest and positive reception to President Trump’s State of the Union address.
The total crypto market cap is up over 4.5% in the past 24 hours and has stabilised around $2.35 trillion at press time.
This recovery follows a period where the global market cap had tested monthly lows near $2.19 trillion, effectively forming a double bottom structure that analysts believe could pave the way for a continued relief rally toward the $2.5 trillion mark.
Risk sentiment improved noticeably overnight, as evident on the crypto fear and greed index, which was up three points to 11.
While the score remains firmly within the extreme fear category, the slight uptick suggests that the peak panic selling seen earlier in the week has begun to exhaust itself.
Risk on mood seemed to be back at least in the short term as Altcoins fared relatively better, with almost all of the high caps trading in green.
Ethereum and XRP led the market bounce, while Solana and other major Layer 1 tokens recovered from their recent local bottoms.
Why is Bitcoin price up today?
Bitcoin price reclaimed a key support level above $65,000 after a convergence of macro relief, technical stabilization and renewed institutional demand shifted the tone of the market.
A favourable reaction to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address acted as an immediate catalyst.
Markets interpreted the administration’s emphasis on low inflation and strong employment as a signal of underlying economic resilience, prompting a return to risk assets.
US equities rallied in response, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing higher, and that strength flowed directly into crypto markets, where Bitcoin continues to trade in close alignment with tech-heavy benchmarks during periods of heightened macro sensitivity.
Trade policy developments added another layer of support.
A recent Supreme Court ruling that curtailed the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose reciprocal tariffs briefly eased fears of further escalation in global trade tensions.
Although a separate 15% global tariff was later introduced under different authority, the initial legal setback helped cool immediate volatility.
As a result, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower, providing a tailwind for Bitcoin, which historically benefits from dollar softness.
Meanwhile, after five consecutive weeks of net outflows totalling nearly $3.8 billion, US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $258 million in net inflows.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund attracted $83 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT drew in $79 million, marking the strongest single-day performance since early February.
Such inflows suggest that professional investors may be shifting from de-risking to selective accumulation at lower levels.
Simultaneously, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index flipped positive for the first time since mid January, indicating that US-based buyers were stepping in aggressively enough to push Coinbase prices above those on offshore exchanges.
Market participants widely view this metric as a proxy for institutional and high-net-worth demand.
Further, tensions between the United States and Iran appeared to stabilise after reports emerged of renewed diplomatic engagement, reducing immediate fears of escalation.
That cooling in geopolitical risk coincided with improved performance in equities and commodities such as silver, reinforcing a broader risk on tone.
Technical conditions had also set the stage for a rebound. Bitcoin entered the week in deeply oversold territory, with indicators such as RSI hitting levels that have marked previous cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin RSI. Source: Crypto Rover on X.
Strong support near the $60,000 to $62,000 zone held firm, and reports indicate that smaller investors accumulated roughly 31,000 BTC during the drawdown.
Whales are also stepping in, according to some market watchers.
As price stabilised, a wave of short liquidations, totalling more than $300 million across the broader market, contributed to a modest squeeze that accelerated the move higher.
Will Bitcoin price go up?
Despite today’s recovery rally, Bitcoin remains within a multi-week consolidation range, with resistance near $68,500 still intact.
Options markets continue to price downside protection aggressively, signalling that hedging demand has not fully subsided.
From here, Bitcoin price will have to secure a sustained daily close above the $68,500 level to shift the prevailing technical narrative from a defensive bounce to a more constructive trend.
Reclaiming this specific threshold is essential because it represents the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range that was lost during the mid-month correction.
Until this level is turned back into support, the market remains susceptible to a double-top formation on shorter timeframes, which could trap late buyers and lead to a retest of the $60,000 psychological floor.
Analysts are closely watching the $71,300 mark as the definitive gatekeeper for a solid recovery. See below.
A breakout beyond this upper boundary, backed by rising spot volume rather than just derivatives liquidations, would signal a genuine return of long-term demand.
Such a move would likely flip the 25-delta risk reversal back toward positive territory, indicating that traders are once again willing to pay a premium for upside calls.
Successfully holding this level would effectively invalidate the recent bearish structure and open the door for an assault on the $75,000 supply zone.
However, failure to clear the $68,500 resistance followed by a breakdown below $64,000 would confirm that the recent price action was merely a dead cat bounce.
If the price fails to generate follow-through momentum and slips back under the $65,000 support, it would suggest that the underlying sell pressure remains dominant.
At press time, Bitcoin bulls had pushed prices above $67,000 with gains of over 6% on the day.
Altcoin market recovers
The altcoin market cap rose over 11% to $1.05 trillion at press time.
Ethereum (ETH) led the altcoin rally with gains of nearly 9% to $1,972, while other major cryptocurrencies such as XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) posted gains between 5-10%.
Nearly all of the top 100 crypto assets by market cap were in the green as investors bought the recent dip.
Meanwhile, some market watchers pointed to a widely shared chart tracking altcoins’ relative strength against Bitcoin, noting that alts have remained in a multi-year downtrend versus BTC since 2022.
Analysts say the structure is now pressing right up against that descending resistance, with relative strength close to a potential breakout level.
TOTAL2/BTC ratio. Source: Crypto Seth on X.
A confirmed move above this trendline could mark a shift in capital rotation toward altcoins
Top altcoin gainers
Morpho (MORPHO) led the altcoin recovery by rallying 25% following the integration of Morpho vaults in Safe, which enables yield generation via Société Générale’s MiCA-compliant EURCV stablecoin.
Concurrently, Celo has adopted Morpho’s modular infrastructure to boost its DeFi ecosystem.
VIRTUAL surged 20% today, fueled by its x402 micropayment engine and a $1 million monthly incentive for top-performing AI agents.
The rally has been further bolstered by the launch of Eastworld Labs which expands the protocol’s reach into humanoid robotics.
Meanwhile, the protocol has also started directing a significant portion of ecosystem revenue towards buying back and burning VIRTUAL tokens to drive deflationary pressure.
For Polkadot (DOT), its 19% rally comes as investor anticipation builds for its first-ever inflation halving in mid-March, a milestone set to slash new token issuance by 50%.
The token’s rally is further amplified by growing speculation surrounding potential Spot Polkadot ETF filings, with institutional heavyweights like Grayscale and 21Shares rumoured to be exploring DOT-based products.
Source: CoinMarketCap
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