Despite Democrats’ attempts to spin who is really to blame for the government shutdown, the American people know better.
CNN’s Senior Data Reporter, Harry Enten, confirmed that recent polling shows Republican popularity is up during the Schumer shutdown, and Democrats are in the worst position they have been in on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm, when there was a Republican President in the last 20 years.
John Berman: Data analyst, Harry Enten. Harry, we saw the troops. We talked about air traffic controllers. Not clear their pain on the shutdown. One thing that might end a shutdown is political pain if parties start to feel that it’s hurting them. So let’s talk about that, starting with Republicans. How has the shutdown seemed to have affected their political standing?
Harry Enten: Yeah, you might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand.
But in fact, it hasn’t. If anything, it’s been helped a little bit.
Take a look here, the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped.
Come over to this side of the screen. Look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown.
So what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to where we were pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control…and that’s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at is, “Hey, why should we give, electorially speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit.”
John Berman: Now, we say their position is getting better with whom?
Harry Enten: Yeah, okay, with whom. I think it’s two groups that it’s so important to keep an eye on. All right. Change in the Republican Congress’s net approval rating versus pre-shutdown. It’s rallying the base for sure. Look at this, the net approval rating up 12 points versus pre-shutdown.
But it’s not just with the base. It’s also with the middle of the electorate.
Look at this, among independents. It’s up eight points as well. So we’ve got a situation here where Republicans with the shutdown are actually rallying their base, but it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the folks in the middle. If anything, it’s helping them with folks in the middle.
This is the type of math that if you’re Republicans, you like to see, right? Because something could rally the base, but alienate those in the middle, or something could rally those in the middle, but alienate the base. But the truth is, we’re not seeing that.
What we’re seeing is the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents, and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well, that Republican brand when it comes to those in Congress. So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?
John Berman: And Democrats, of course, they have their eyes on the midterm elections. Yeah, we have elections one week from today, but what Democrats and Congress are mostly focused on or one year and one week from today from the midterm. So how do Democrats, how are they positioned right now?
Harry Enten: Yeah. Look, the generic Congressional ballot, which traditionally Democrats have done really well on. And if you look at this point back when Trump was present the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now. Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points.
This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on in a generic ballot at this point in midterm when there was a Republican President in the last 20 years.
And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So Republicans aren’t losing on this metric either. They become more popular, and they’re actually in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.
John Berman: This is a concerning number for Democrats, are you say, in Congress?
Harry Enten: This is a concerning number for Democrats because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican President.
Watch:
SHOCKING: CNN’s statistician Harry Enten reveals Republicans popularity has surged 3 points since the government shutdown. “It’s actually up 5 points since pre-shutdown. So what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat.”
House… pic.twitter.com/4buo5USYCv
— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) October 28, 2025
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