Digital currencies are experiencing significant bearishness, with faded liquidity preventing upsides and accelerating every dip.
Cryptocurrencies remained unmistakably cautious the past week, with major headlines failing to spark rallies, at least as analysts and traders expected.
The rate cut that failed to lift crypto
All eyes remained on the December 10 FOMC this week.
You will expect a rate cut to bolster the entire crypto space, especially due to the forecasted Q4 bull runs.
Generally, lower borrowing costs and new liquidity renew interest in risk-on assets.
However, that was not the script this week.
Cryptos soared briefly after the Fed executed the awaited 25-basis-point cut, but lost steam quickly as BTC failed to overcome the crucial resistance between $92,000 and $94,000.
Why the surprise/disappointing performance? While the rate cut was bullish, markets reacted to the Fed Chair’s tone.
Notably, Jerome Powell emphasised lingering high inflation and deteriorated labour markets, hinting that the central bank isn’t prepared to reopen liquidity taps sooner than anticipated.
POWELL’S TONE WAS HAWKISH
Powell doubled down on risks:
✓ Employment downside risks rising
✓ Inflation still elevated
✓ Goods inflation picking back up
✓ Rates now in a “plausible neutral range” but cuts likely on pause
Markets hated it.
Also, new projections suggested that we may have only one rate cut in the coming year.
The hawkish tone triggered selling pressure in risk assets, even after a rate cut.
Nevertheless, nothing is new. Such trends have repeated after recent meetings.
Bitcoin plunged in mid-2023 during a week that experienced slowed inflation, going against analysts’ expectations.
BTC lost roughly 40% in a day in March 2020 amidst aggressive fiat printing.
Therefore, markets do not respond to policies only.
What matters the most is how much liquidity market players expect in the coming sessions.
Liquidity is crucial than headlines
Digital tokens flourish during adequate liquidity. Prices surge when money enters the market, and buyers move the market without much resistance.
On the other hand, even minor selling activities can significantly influence prices when liquidity fades.
The past few sessions can testify to that.
While crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded considerable inflows, the trend shifted swiftly after the indication that the Fed wasn’t ready to commit to long-term liquidity.
Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows amounting to $224 million on December 10 (the FOMC day) and flipped negative the following day.
SoSoValue data shows BTC funds logged $77.34 million in outflows on December 11.
The impact? Choppy, bearish, and unpredictable price movements across the crypto board.
Even meme tokens lost billions as speculative traders retreated.
Why the intense volatility?
Well, low liquidity translates to sharper swings.
Faded trader activity, whether due to risk-off mood, uncertainty among institutions, or holiday slowdowns, shrinks market depth.
Risk assets are sensitive to such cases.
A single whale transaction can catalyse a 5% price move, whereas sudden ETF outflows can trigger substantial sideways action.
Also, comments from top figures like Powell can spark volatility within minutes.
The trader playbook during low liquidity
Forget about complicated indicators for now.
The current market needs a strategic approach and understanding of how liquidity influences market sentiments.
Here’s how to navigate the current crypto landscape.
Firstly, move after the dust settles. One of the worst things can be chasing the initial move.
The latest trends have proved it. For instance, BTC price soared after the rate cut, only to dump minutes later.
Secondly, price actions without adequate volumes are nothing. Deteriorated markets print false rallies that trap traders.
Last but not least, small entries matter during choppy markets.
Savvy traders will never go all-in. Rather, they scale slowly while navigating volatility surges. The best thing now is to prepare.
Smart money is strategically buying dips as markets brace for the next massive move after liquidity resurgence.
Meanwhile, one thing is clear: crypto is no longer moving on crucial headlines, but liquidity expectations.
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