Geopolitical instability and burgeoning global debt are forecast to drive gold prices to a staggering $5,050 per ounce in the first half of 2026, though this historic peak may be followed by a sharp correction later in the year, according to a recent analysis from HSBC.
“We see a wide range of $5,050 – $3,950/oz for 2026 and an end-year price of $4,450/oz,” the HSBC analysts said in a note published Thursday, which was quoted in a Kitco report.
Although the bank’s gold price forecast for 2025 rose to $5,050 from its previous $5,000 call, it simultaneously decreased its average forecast for 2026 from $4,600 to $4,587 per ounce.
This reduction was attributed to the potential for a price correction later in 2026, which could be triggered by the rising prices.
Volatile 2026
The gold market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2026, according to the analysts.
They cautioned that the current correction could become more severe if geopolitical tensions ease or if the US Federal Reserve decides to stop cutting interest rates.
HSBC has substantially increased its average price forecasts for upcoming years, now projecting $4,625 for 2027 (up from $3,950) and $4,700 for 2028 (a rise from $3,630).
Additionally, the bank initiated an average price forecast for 2029, setting it at $4,775.
Rodolphe Bohn, HSBC’s currencies and commodities strategist, predicted in late November that gold would continue its upward trend.
This projection was based on the strong demand observed from both central banks and retail investors.
In its Think Future 2026 outlook publication, HSBC featured Bohn, who stated that despite gold’s strong year-to-date performance and recent price fluctuations, the bank remains optimistic about its prospects for the coming months.
“We believe that investors can benefit from diversifying their exposure to global assets, particularly foreign exchange, through gold,” Bohn wrote.
It offers resilience during periods of significant turbulence and holds potential for further appreciation.
According to Bohn, gold had experienced one of its most successful years on record in 2025.
Drivers of resilience and downside risks
He attributed this “exceptional growth” primarily to rising global uncertainty and apprehension regarding the debasement of the US dollar.
Bohn concluded that, even with improved global sentiment and the rise in global equities, the prevailing market conditions continue to bolster gold prices.
He further stated that gold is expected to remain buoyant, driven by robust central bank purchases, persistent worries about a weaker US dollar, and continued investor interest in gold-backed ETFs.
In this context, gold remains a crucial diversifier within a portfolio, helping customers navigate persistent global uncertainties.
Bohn acknowledged that HSBC’s positive outlook faces potential downside risks.
These risks include the possibility of the Federal Reserve unexpectedly adopting a more hawkish position or an improvement in the global economic environment, despite its current positive correlation.
A slow-paced increase in gold prices is expected, driven by the anticipated weakening of the US dollar and continued global monetary easing, particularly from the Fed.
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