Argentina’s economy is projected to grow 1.7% year-on-year in November, marking the second consecutive month of cooling activity following a period of robust performance, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.
Latin America’s third-largest economy had previously surged 4.8% in September.
However, growth moderated to 3.2% in October, with November expected to confirm a further slowdown.
Despite the cooling trend, data from the National Institute of Statistics indicate that Argentina has not recorded a single month of negative growth in 2025.
Economists characterise the revised November estimate as a deceleration rather than a contraction, noting that while the pace of gains has dropped significantly, the economy is still expanding.
Consequently, the year has been defined by positive, albeit uneven, activity.
Analysts’ forecasts cluster around 1.7%
Projections from 12 local and foreign analysts point to an average rise of 1.7% for the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) in November.
The EMAE is a closely watched indicator, used by economists and business leaders as a proxy for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to track short-term economic momentum.
While the average and median forecasts both settled at 1.7%, estimates varied significantly, ranging from 0% (no change) to 3.1%.
This wide spread highlights a divergence in opinion among analysts regarding economic activity as the year draws to a close.
Although this level of disagreement marks a departure from previous years, the consensus still points to continued—albeit slower—growth.
The EMAE remains a crucial benchmark for monitoring these month-to-month shifts.
Sectoral weakness weighs on results
Consulting firm Orlando Ferreres and Associates projects a 1.6% rise in the November EMAE, a figure largely in line with the broader market consensus.
However, the firm described the underlying details as dismal, citing significant contractions in both industry and commerce for the month.
‘Despite November’s disappointing data, the outlook for 2026 is positive,’ the firm told investors.
Their analysis suggests that this short-term softness does not derail the broader recovery trend seen throughout the year.
Looking ahead, the consultancy identified several catalysts likely to drive future growth.
These include increased investment, better access to credit, and recovering household income—all underpinned by a more stable macroeconomic and political landscape.
Official data awaited
The official EMAE statistic for November will be published on Wednesday at 4 p.m. local (19:00 GMT) by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC).
The release will provide a confirmation of whether the consensus forecast matches the official figures.
Until then, expectations are focused on a slowdown rather than a downturn.
The expected 1.7% gain would keep November solidly in positive territory, extending a streak of non-negative monthly outcomes into 2025.
While analysts wait for the official figures, eyes are on how the final data releases of the year colour views of underlying momentum.
So far, forecasts have pointed to an easing of activity from previous peaks but modest growth, driven by improved conditions anticipated going forward.
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