After failing to breach the $94,500 resistance zone, Bitcoin price pulled back towards a key support level as macro conditions and a lack of demand have taken their toll on risk appetite, particularly as sticky inflation data dampens hopes for further aggressive rate cuts.
The shift in sentiment is visible across the Fear and Greed Index chart, which initially returned to a neutral level early in the week, but heightened volatility has once again pushed the metric toward the lower bounds of the scale.
By late Asian trading hours on Friday, the index was sitting in the lower 40s, close to entering fear territory.
Typically, when this metric slips into the “fear” zone, major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to face increased selling pressure as retail investors de-risk, often leading to a period of consolidation until a fresh catalyst reignites buyer confidence.
Why is Bitcoin price not going up?
Although Bitcoin began the week on a positive note, fueled by nearly $1.2 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the first two trading sessions, with bulls attempting to attack $95,000, the rally ultimately played as a fakeout.
As the week progressed, ETF demand vanished, with flows turning negative for consecutive sessions as the early-year rebalancing trade exhausted itself. By late Friday, the early gains had vanished entirely across the board.
The mood has been further soured by the Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a cooling US labor market with only 50,000 jobs added in December.
This weak hiring data would usually be bullish for Bitcoin as it supports the case for rate cuts, but it collided with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on Presidential tariff powers.
The legal uncertainty over whether billions in global tariffs will be upheld or suddenly refunded has created a policy cliff, forcing institutional players to freeze their activity until the verdict is clear.
At the same time, the hawkish shift in Federal Reserve commentary has followed this week’s jobs data.
Specifically, while the 50,000 jobs added missed the 66,000 forecast, the sharp drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a 0.3% rise in monthly wages have wiped out any remaining hopes for a January rate cut.
Because inflation remains stubbornly high, traders now fear a “stagflationary” trap where the economy slows down but interest rates stay high, a scenario that has seen the US Dollar Index spike, adding heavy pressure to risk assets.
Market weakness was further exacerbated by a brutal washout in the derivatives market.
As Bitcoin repeatedly failed to reclaim the $93,000 to $94,500 resistance zone, a cascade of long liquidations hit the market.
By late Friday, total crypto liquidations surged over $449 million, with long positions accounting for the vast majority of the Rekt volume as the price slid back toward the $90,000 psychological floor.
Current macroeconomic headwinds have forced investors to take a wait-and-see approach that is starving the market of the momentum needed to clear heavy overhead supply.
Bitcoin price at risk below $90,000
When gauging the 7-day Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, a dense cluster of liquidity can be seen concentrated between the $94,000 and $98,000 levels, which could act as a powerful magnet for price action if buyers manage to defend $90,000 with conviction into next week’s open.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass.
A short squeeze above $95,000 would be a possibility if institutional demand via ETFs makes a return to absorb the heavy overhead supply, and the macro environment cools.
On the downside, however, there is a significant pocket of high-leverage long positions extending down toward the $88,000 mark, which could spell further trouble for the market if the psychological floor at $90,000 is decisively breached.
If this support fails, the heatmap reveals a potential liquidity vacuum that could quickly pull the price toward the mid-eighties, near $84,000 to $85,000, where a massive concentration of margined longs currently sits waiting to be flushed.
All eyes are now on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, when the December CPI report is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET.
Analysts are expecting headline inflation to land around 2.7% to 3.0%, and a reading higher than this would likely cement fears of a hawkish Fed pause, potentially keeping Bitcoin price suppressed within its current range between $85,000 – $95,000.
BTC/USD monthly price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap.
Analysts eye $105,000 in coming weeks
Despite the current weakness, most analysts were bullish on Bitcoin’s outlook for the coming weeks.
According to well-followed market commentator Ted Pillows, the Bitcoin price has been shaping up an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart.
BTC/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: Ted Pillows on X.
An ascending triangle pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that is formed of rising higher lows and typically signals a continuation of the uptrend once a breakout occurs.
Based on his analysis, a breakout from the pattern could push Bitcoin to as high as 98,000 to 100,000 dollars before facing any major pullback.
Fellow analysts at Crypto GEMs also echoed a similar bullish forecast for Bitcoin.
On a shorter time-framed chart, they noted that it has formed a bullish Adam and Eve pattern, a bullish formation that supports the potential for more upside.
BTC/USDC 8-hour price chart. Source: Crypto GEMs on X.
“BTC is going to new ATHs sooner than you think,” they noted.
Meanwhile, BitBull drew attention to the weekly RSI chart, where an important breakout from Bitcoin’s RSI trendline was already in motion.
Per his analysis, while the Bitcoin price is stuck moving sideways, the RSI has broken out of a bearish trend in December that had been in play since September 2025.
“BTC weekly RSI is calling for more upside here. Broke out of its 3-month downtrend and holding above the breakout line,” BitBull said, while sharing the chart below.
BTC/USDT 1-week price chart. Source: BitBull on X.
As highlighted in the chart, last time, a similar breakout followed months of upside for Bitcoin from local lows. This time, he believes Bitcoin could target $103,000-$105,000 over the next 3-4 weeks.
The post Bitcoin price risks falling below $90k as rate cut hopes fade, will it crash? appeared first on Invezz